had a conversation recently with a senior person in the industry, and i mentioned that no one can predict at all the direction of the market going forward; we are at an inflexion point, and there ought to be a correction of some sort as with all markets, if only because valuations are pointing to positive 3-4% gdp growth, which completely neglects the reality that employment in the US etc is massively negative and that we are in a much earlier part of the recovery phase (if at all). (of course, massive unemployment in and of itself does not mean that the economy cannot grow - see for example the pre-ww2 roosevelt years).

the response i got was that 'we all need to have a view (the underlying tone i detected was, that's what we're paid for)'.

this is where i disagree. the bias to action is well-known, and the problem is that this is regarded as the norm. people need to have a view. people need to concoct explanations for what is going on (or has gone on, as most of it is post-hoc). two ideas (truths?) which i believe in are, that there is absolutely no need to take action until the right pitch comes along (warren buffett), and that trying to come out with pseudo-explanations for what is happening in the market on a daily basis is not simply a lesson in futility, but madness (ala bloomberg). as nassim taleb regular admits, he doesn't know everything or their causes - but neither do we really need to know.

when will i start to be taken seriously and get people to listen! =/